A week later: Russia’s mercenary force flirtation with a coup leaves no one knowing the next step

(Photo credit: Unnamed source in Ukraine. Burned out remnants of Russian tank on display, 2023)

Last week the world woke up to see and hear about a possible coup in Russia. It appeared the so-called Wagner Group, a mercenary force in the employ of Russia, was on the rampage toward Moscow.

The reality we face a week later is that we do not know what the short-lived road trip really means.

We were told the group’s leader, a thuggish Yevgeny Prigozhin, had moved his force into the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, virtually unopposed.  This appeared to be significant because the city has the controlling headquarters of Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.

Further, word came that Prigozhin’s force was on a major highway and was within 200 kilometers of Moscow.

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s 20-year dictatorial president, proclaimed the leaders of Wagner as “traitors” and put a warrant out for the arrest of Prigozhin.

Then, in a dramatic and seemingly sudden turn, Wagner forces stopped and were apparently ordered to returned to their bases.

Later it was reported that neighboring Belarus dictator, Alexsandr G. Lukashenko, purportedly brokered a deal with all parties and that Prigozhin would exile himself in Belarus and not be charged with the treason Putin had announced. A bizarre occurrence to say the least.

With Prigozhin off to Belarus, Wagner troops were given a choice by Putin to join the Russian Army, go with Prigozhin, or go home.

This record-time coup/stand down/leader exile has raised multiple questions that likely will not be answered anytime soon.

What was the reason for Prigozhin’s move?

Prigozhin claimed the march was not intended to be a coup attempt.

“We didn’t march to overthrow Russia’s leadership,” Prigozhin said in audio release reported by Breitbart. “The aim of the march was to avoid the destruction of Wagner and to hold to account the officials who, through their unprofessional actions, have committed a massive number of errors.”

While plausible, this explanation is far less than adequate – and probably not true.

Why did his forces halt?

That fact has yet to come to light. Whatever he or Putin may say about this aspect of the effort can be assumed to be untrue.

What will the Russian forces do without the Wagner Group or another organization like it?

Despite Wagner Group’s billing as a gritty fighting force, maybe even the best outfit fighting on the Russian side, their record of fighting against Ukraine is spotty at best.

It may make a difference whether Wagner continues in Ukraine, but it matters more in places such as Syria and in African nations against much lesser opposition. Wagner allows Russia to appear less aggressive, even when aggressive action is exactly what is happening.

Does the Wagner Group’s ability to so easily maneuver within Russia expose weakness of the Russian military, or perhaps more importantly ineptness of Putin himself?

All aspects of the Russian war on Ukraine have made Putin at least appear weaker. His conventional forces cannot fight well using combined arms. His generals and other leaders are proving horribly unable to perform. Putin’s national-level leadership is non-existent.

The Wagner Group fiasco takes the look of weakness to a much higher level. In his 20-plus years of dictatorial rule, this may prove to be his lowest moment.

In the coming weeks, the world will undoubtedly learn more about this episode. If recent history is a guide, it will look very different than it does today just one week after Prigozhin ventured into Russia.

Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has brought the unexpected for Putin and none of it has been a happy surprise for him. His vaunted army is a second-rate organization (at best). His generals are terrible. And now, his work-around of hiring mercenaries to do the military’s work is proving worse than doing nothing at all.

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James Hutton is a former assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and is a retired colonel in the U.S. Army. Follow him on Twitter @jehutton