Life is not good for the vaunted Russian Army in Ukraine, but stalemate prevails

Ukraine’s new western equipment and the introduction of partisan fighters in the southeast are making life very difficult for Russian forces in a stagnating war that Russia was supposed to win easily.

However, the expected major counter-offensive by the Ukrainian military near Kherson has not fully materialized.

Many of the actions to date have the appearance of counter-offensive actions, such as artillery and local attacks, but major movement of armor or infantry is not yet evident.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned citizens living in Crimea and nearby areas to “not approach the military objects of the Russian army,” in what appears to be in preparation of major operations by Ukrainian forces.

A recent attack on a Russian base in Crimea by Ukraine special forces aided by partisans and likely long-range artillery from High Mobility Rocket System (HIMARS) destroyed at least eight warplanes on the ground.   

The attack on the Russians in Crimea calls into question effectiveness of Russian hardware such as the S-400 air defense system. This is undoubtedly influencing Russia troop morale, not just because the effect of the attack, but also due to the inadequacy of supposed cutting-edge technology.

Ukrainian attacks into Crimea are continuing. Russian disinformation labeled one attack as “sabotage.” While the true source of the attack is not known whether it was truly sabotage or another form of attack still demonstrates Russian control is tenuous.

By contrast, HIMARS multiple launch rocket system artillery, from the U.S. and western allies, has proven effective nearly immediately.

Further, the introduction of AGM-88 HARM, or High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles, that are designed to “seek and destroy enemy radar-equipped air defense systems,’ according to a U.S. Air Force fact sheet, presents one more new problem for the Russians. The missiles will give them second thoughts about using such systems that are at once vital and yet could be giving Ukrainian forces a path to destroy them.

Further, according to Bloomberg, “Ukraine is likely preparing a counteroffensive in the south but will only strike if and when it’s confident of making progress, and Russia’s logistics and supply lines have been further hit.”

Other actions lend themselves to that conclusion.

Bridges important to Russian resupply were effectively damaged by Ukrainian attack in the south.

According to the British Ministry of Defense, “two primary road bridges giving access to the pocket of Russian occupied territory on the west bank of the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast are now probably out of use for the purposes of substantial military resupply.”

Logistics are likely being affected by the Ukrainian attacks on the bridges. According to a source in Ukraine, Russians are low on food in some locations. 

“They’re on single day rations and they’re deserting,” the source said. 

Russian mercenaries known as the Wagner group were attacked by Ukrainian forces, adding further evidence of the efficacy of Ukrainian targeting.

According to the Washington Post, the group is a “private military company (that) has done Moscow’s dirty work in eastern Ukraine, Libya, Syria and parts of Africa,” behind the scenes and is now openly recruiting members.

The attack in the eastern part of Russian-held Ukraine, was apparently on the group’s headquarters.  The need for the Wagner group and other mercenaries at all points out deficiencies in filling out the needed Russian fighting force.

Other recruited militia groups are also being used by the Russians, but not all is going to plan.

The Institute for the Study of War reported that a Russian-led militia in Ukraine’s Russian-controlled Luhansk Oblast (province), is declining to engage.

The so-called Luhansk People’s Republic militia “reportedly refuse to continue fighting in Donetsk Oblast and complained about the grueling pace of offensive outside our Luhansk Oblast.”

Moving forward for the Russians will likely see more desperation and lower troop morale.

“Looking at this from the tactical perspective, it would be a stretch to say things have gone as Russia anticipated,” said retired U.S. Army Colonel Mike Galloucis, a former brigade commander in the Iraq War.  

“They have had numerous logistics challenges from the onset, which among many impacts has affected the availability of rations for their troops. It has been credibly reported several Russian generals have been killed. Some Russian equipment has not performed as expected, such as their anti-aircraft weapons,” Galloucis said.  “The constant pounding of Russian positions by Ukrainian forces using American provided long range HIMARS artillery directly impacts the front-line troops and is nerve wracking.  It is hard to assess the collective impact on troop morale these issues have had, but it is not insignificant.”

James Hutton is a former assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and is a retired colonel in the U.S. Army. Follow him on Twitter @jehutton, GETTR @jehutton, and Truth Social @jehutton