Ukraine possibly on the verge of an offensive

Ukraine appears to be preparing for an offensive in Kherson, in southern Ukraine. This is an area that Russia currently controls and it is just north of Crimea.

This would represent possibly the first major offensive by the Ukrainians and, if successful, could be a turning point in the war. 

Russia seems content to plug along but if its forces suffer major setbacks, plugging along may not work.

According to a source in Ukraine, Russia is continuing to send ill-trained recruits who lack skills such as setting ambushes and attacking through fire and maneuver --- basics of infantry warfare. 

The source said that while the Ukrainians came up through the same military system that relies on specific, often inflexible, orders, the Ukrainians are learning about mission orders.  That is, orders that are focused on outcomes and being allowed flexibility to make decisions on the ground based on conditions – with the end state in mind.  Foreign troops are also gelling and are being allowed to fight together in the fashion that western countries are familiar.

The Ukrainians are highly motivated and want to learn. Western military weaponry is making a difference and can make an even greater difference.

The U.S.-provided HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) is affecting Russian operations. Presumably, the rockets are targeting Russian cannon artillery positions and can do so from distances the Russians cannot match. Russians rely heavily on the use of cannon artillery.

The Ukrainians are operating fewer than ten HIMARS launchers.  The HIMARS, a wheeled system, can fire up to six rockets before requiring reload. It can also fire and move within just a few minutes.

The U.S.  Army employs both the HIMARS and the M270 launcher, which can fire twelve rockets before reloading.  The M270 is not being supplied to Ukraine.

While seven HIMARS can provide useful effects, it is likely Ukraine could employ up to 200 of the systems gainfully which would likely provide game-changing effects on sluggish Russian forces. 

The Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) munition variant, which is a missile that can be fired from HIMARS up to an unclassified range of about 300 kilometers. 

The U.S. currently does not send this munition out of worries that it will be used against targets in Russia. 

Shooting into staging areas, munition dumps, refueling stations is part of the war and the Ukrainians should be allowed to decide the best targets to hit.  The restriction has frustrated Ukrainian officials, who described the restriction as patronizing. In a battle now largely conducted with artillery at distances where troops of opposite sides rarely see each other, the longer-range missiles would also allow Ukrainian forces to move their HIMARS further back from the front lines, better insulating them from enemy detection.

Recently a U.S. Air Force general said that the US is considering providing Ukraine with western fighter planes. 

This would represent a monumental shift and may be an indicator that the west feels the time is nearing during which Russian forces could be forced to capitulate in key positions in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to lie to the international community.

Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement to send grain to much of the world, in a deal brokered by Turkey.  The next day Russia fired multiple missiles into Odessa which is the main port out of which the grain would flow.  They first denied that missiles were fired. Later they said the missile were indeed fired but hit only military targets.

UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said after the cruise-missile strike that “not a word (Putin) says can be trusted” and showed the need for “a better way” of getting grain out of Ukraine.

Russia’s actions on the world stage are equally appalling.

Russia has now asked for the convening of a war crimes tribunal and has named several Ukrainians to be defendants.  Delusional.

Any respectable tribunal would have to begin with Vladimir Putin himself. 

We can also surmise the number of war criminals in the Russian forces is astronomically high, judging by what was left behind in areas recaptured by the Ukrainians.

The U.S. and its western allies must continue to keep pressure on Russia, if not for the sake of Ukrainians but also for its own forces that could potentially be called on to face the Russian military.

This effort tamps down the aggressive efforts by Russia, and their co-conspirator China, from immediate adventurism.  For the moment, Russia is exposed as incompetent and we must ensure it cannot build momentum.

Supporting Ukraine at least temporarily disables attempts by Russia to turn toward Poland and the rest of Europe. 

We do not have to debate on whether that is Putin’s aim --- we need to prevent the possibility.

James Hutton is a former assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and is a retired colonel in the U.S. Army. Follow him on Twitter @jehutton, GETTR @jehutton, and Truth Social @jehutton