We can see what it will take to win against Russia, let’s get Ukraine what it needs

As predicted, Russia is not yet ready to quit in Ukraine, but it is also obvious that their options are narrowing.

Its missile attacks in October are likely intended to demonstrate power, but just as likely cannot be backed with troop formations on the battlefield.

Let’s not wait for the next big attempt at an offensive before we give Ukraine what it needs to defeat Russia. And yes, that means defeating Russia, not simply forcing Vladimir Putin to a negotiating table. 

Many are saying since the latest round of countrywide missile attacks that NATO, and other nations supporting Ukraine, should send air defense systems. Before that, it was long range artillery and fighter aircraft —— months after both needs were identified by many observers. 

Look ahead and behind and we will see that along with air defense, long-range artillery and fighter aircraft have been needed and will continue to be needed. 

The difference between 2014, when Russia forced its way into eastern Ukraine and Crimea, is that the Ukrainians have improved the war-fighting skills of their troops (with lots of outside help).

This force adds the needed dynamic to take advantage of the superior technology of western air defense systems, fighter aircraft, when and if it becomes part of Ukraine’s arsenal, in addition to the HIMARS rockets already fielded and potentially Army Tactical Missile Systems missiles. 

ATACMS, which delivers very long-range artillery munitions that can be fired from the HIMARS or M270 platforms to a range of at least 300 kilometers. The U.S. primarily, but other NATO nations as well, have sent and are sending more HIMARS with standard rockets. 

ATACMS can fire on logistics depots, assembly areas and troop formations on the move. Many units can be destroyed before they even realize they are under attack. 

The U.S. is concerned that ATACMS missiles will be fired into Russia, thus expanding the war zone, and perhaps invigorating a Russian population that has not been enthusiastic for the war. Given Russia’s continuing attacks using missiles, and its proven atrocious performance with troops on the ground, this concern is no longer well-founded.

It is not even clear that Putin has the support of political forces and from personnel in Russia’s nuclear forces that would be necessary to carry our tactical or even theater-level nuclear attacks.

Fighter aircraft, and other types of aircraft, can help locate and destroy missile launch sites. Aircraft can also engage troop and tank formations, and support Ukraine troops in their attack --- close air support -- throwing an already harried, leaderless Russian military into complete disarray. 

We can see possibilities opening up. Ukraine has affected logistics distribution as seen by an attack on a vital bridge to Crimea (although no one has specifically taken credit to date).  Russian bases throughout the eastern part of Ukraine could be in reach of ATACMS with advancements into the south.

Each attack on logistics operations of the Russians continues to frustrate President Vladimir Putin’s desperate desire to control eastern Ukraine. His troops are poorly led by a dwindling number of senior leaders. Some claim hunger and substandard training when captured and, naturally, winter is on the way.  Troops in the field are bound to suffer.

The west must guard against political winds from its own fringes, some which either suggest Russia is misunderstood (a tiny minority) or those who want the U.S. to isolate itself who wonder why we are helping at all (stunningly oblivious to lessons western Europe and the U.S. learned from Hitler’s takeover of Austria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland).

This situation may or may not be the full equivalent to Nazi Germany in 1939, but many of its attributes are similar enough to warrant continuing involvement. That does not include troop involvement, but equipment and other forms of assistance are consistent with our needs as well as those of Ukraine. We cannot allow Russia to come out of this more powerful, more willing to trash international law, or turn a victory into a more menacing cabal with its partner China.

We cannot allow misgivings about the U.S. administration’s ability to conduct foreign relations to cloud the facts of the horrendous and illegal invasion by Russia. Since that invasion Putin's army has engaged in purposeful and brutal attacks on civilians.

Finally, whatever one thinks of Ukraine and its leadership, Russia cannot be allowed to prosper from its invasion and war crimes. 

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James Hutton is a former assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and is a retired colonel in the U.S. Army. Follow him on Twitter @jehutton, GETTR @jehutton, and Truth Social @jehutton