World War II parallels in Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine, it’s time to think about Putin’s next move

May 10, 2022

With turmoil in Ukraine occurring before our eyes, it would not serve us well to rely on outrage, economic sanctions, or even military support to the Ukrainians as the Russian army continues its invasion.

We have to begin thinking of military action because it may be thrust upon us with or without our permission should Vladimir Putin breakout and make a sharp turn west.

President Joe Biden has assured Russia repeatedly that no U.S. troops would intervene --- while indicating President Vladimir Putin’s misconduct is unacceptable.

One of his predecessors, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, felt similarly before World War II.

In early 1938, Hitler forced Austria into agreeing to an annexation.  The move was finally ratified by a phony plebiscite in which 99 percent of Austrians allegedly voted approval. The world yawned.

Then Hitler quickly began making noises about absorbing parts of Czechoslovakia in which ethnic Germans lived.

Roosevelt wrote a letter to Adolph Hitler in September 1938 urging him to negotiate with Czechoslovakia as invasion appeared imminent. Hitler replied that the invasion was justified by mistreatment of Germany in the Treaty of Versailles signed at the conclusion of World War I, but that he did not want a large-scale war. Roosevelt felt relieved.   

Days later, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, on behalf of Western nations, negotiated away Czechoslovakia in effect appeasing Hitler, without the consent of Czechoslovakia itself.

Chamberlain concluded the Munich Agreement with Hitler and declared on September 30, 1938 the achievement of “peace in our time.”

Hitler proceeded on with his consolidation in Czechoslovakia and then turned to his plan for his bigger target, Poland.

The Munich Agreement was just a ruse to gain time.

Just months later, Hitler’s army, on September 1, 1939, rolled into Poland in a surprise attack. The UK and France in turn declared war on Germany as both countries had promised Poland. 

What they did not know was that Hitler had a secret agreement with the Soviet Union that would divide up Poland between them.  Hitler also lied to Soviet leader Josef Stalin and later continued on his quest for world domination by invading the Soviet Union.

Hitler had momentum.

What does this mean for Ukraine and beyond and are we incorporating any lessons from World War II?

Ukraine may be like Czechoslovakia, a nation no country in the world values enough to defend. The Ukrainian people are not capitulating, and it is possible Russia could be mired in conflict and perhaps even lose (meaning being forced out of Ukraine).

Putin likely has his sights set well beyond Ukraine. He has effectively annexed Belarus (shades of Austria) though it might at once not realize it and may not be against it.

Other republics of the former Soviet Union, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, are likely fearful now as they are all fully aware of Putin’s ambitions.

Western nations also know that former Soviet republics Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania are vulnerable despite NATO membership.

Any attack on those nations would require a full NATO military response. War.

It is possible that Putin even wants to reestablish control of former Soviet client states Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland.

It is a cruel irony that Poland, which suffered badly in previous invasions by Germany and Russia, is just a border checkpoint away from Ukraine.

President Biden claimed in his State of the Union address that NATO will protect “every single inch” of member countries. Putin is within range of attacking any of those nations.

It is time for the U.S. and its allies to prepare. The U.S. should consider large-scale exercises such as were conducted before the U.S. entry into World War II, which included the Louisiana Maneuvers. Many deficiencies came to light.

NATO itself needs to conduct major integrated exercises. Such exercises could serve as deterrence, but more importantly as actual preparation for war.

It is also time to plan for increasing production of all the weapons of war and logistics equipment to a near-wartime level.

While it is not a foregone conclusion that Putin invades all the countries listed above, his actions in Ukraine can already be seen as self-defeating and reckless. He’s not choosing wisely.

Putin made himself a pariah and has made no agreement with a nation as hellbent on war as Germany’s axis alliance with Japan and Italy, but China lurks in the background.

Without agreeing to war, we and our allies must nevertheless prepare ourselves.

James Hutton is a former assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and is a retired colonel in the U.S. Army. Follow him on Twitter @jehutton.